Important Economic News Releases

All the economic news releases by their impact on the Forex market (low, medium or high impact)

 

M4 Money Supply (GBP) Low Impact

M4 Money is widely referred to as “broad money” or simply “money supply”. The M4 Money Supply released by the Bank of England measures all the sterling in circulation, encompassing notes and coins as well as money held in bank accounts. It is considered as an important indicator of inflation, as monetary expansion adds pressure to the exchange rates. An acceleration of the M4 Money is considered positive for the GBP, whereas a decline is negative.

Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (GBP) Low Impact

The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) released by both the Chartered Institute of Purchasing & Supply and NTC Economics provides a snapshot of business conditions in the manufacturing sector. As the manufacturing sector dominates a large part of total GDP, the Manufacturing PMI is an important indicator of business conditions and the overall economic condition in UK.

A result above 50 is seen as bullish for the GBP, whereas a result below 50 is seen as bearish.

Consumer Price Index (EUR) Medium Impact

Released by Eurostat and provides a snapshot of changes in the price of goods and services. The CPI is an important way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation in the Euro Zone. A high reading anticipates a hawkish attitude which will be positive (or bullish) for the EUR, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

Core Personal Consumption Expenditure – Prices Index (USD) Medium Impact

The Core Personal Consumption Expenditure released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis is an average amount of money that consumers spend in a month. “Core” excludes seasonally volatile products such as food and energy in order to capture an accurate calculation of the expenditure. It is a significant indicator of inflation. A high reading is bullish for the USD, while a low reading is bearish.

Gross Domestic Product (CAD) High Impact

The Gross Domestic Product released by Statistics Canada is a measure of the total value of all goods and services produced by Canada. GDP is considered a broad measure of Canadian economic activity and health. A rising trend has a positive effect on the CAD, while a falling trend is seen as negative (or bearish) for the CAD.

Personal Income (USD) Low Impact

The Personal Income released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, Department of Commerce measures the total income received by individuals, from all sources including wages and salaries, interest, dividends, rent, workers’ compensation, proprietors’ earnings, and transfer payments. This figure can provide insight into the US employment situation. A high reading is positive for the USD, whereas a low reading is negative.

Personal Spending (USD) High Impact

The Personal Spending released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, Department of Commerce is an indicator that measures total expenditure by individuals. The level of spending can be used as an indicator of consumer optimism. It is also considered a measure of economic growth. While Personal Spending stimulates inflationary pressures, it could lead to rising interest rates. A high reading is positive (or bullish) for the USD.

Construction Spending (USD) Low Impact

The Construction Spending released by the US Census Bureau is an indicator that measures the total amount of spending in the US on all types of construction. The residential construction component is useful for predicting future national new home sales and mortgage origination volume. A high reading is seen as positive, or bullish for the USD, while a low reading is seen as negative, or bearish.

ISM Manufacturing (USD) High Impact

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Index shows business conditions in the US manufacturing sector. It is a significant indicator of the overall economic situation in the US. A result above 50 is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, whereas a result below 50 is seen as negative (or bearish).

RBA Interest Rate Decision (AUD) High Impact

The RBA Interest Rate Decision is announced by the Reserve Bank of Australia. If the RBA is hawkish about the inflationary outlook of the economy and raises the interest rate, it is positive, or bullish, for the AUD. Likewise, if the RBA has a dovish view of the Australian economy and keeps the ongoing interest rate, or cuts the interest rate, it is seen as negative, or bearish.

BoC Interest Rate Decision (CAD) High Impact

The BoC Interest Rate Decision is announced by the Bank of Canada. If the BoC is hawkish about the inflationary outlook of the economy and raises the interest rate it is positive, or bullish, for the CAD. Likewise, if the BoC has a dovish view of the Canadian economy and keeps the ongoing interest rate, or cuts the interest rate, it is seen as negative, or bearish.

BoE Interest Rate Decision (GBP) High Impact

The BoE Interest Rate Decision is announced by the Bank of England. If the BoE is hawkish about the inflationary outlook of the economy and raises the interest rate it is positive, or bullish, for the GBP. Likewise, if the BoE has a dovish view of the UK economy and keeps the ongoing interest rate, or cuts the interest rate, it is seen as negative, or bearish.

ECB Interest Rate Decision (EUR) High Impact

The ECB Interest Rate Decision is announced by the European Central Bank. If the ECB is hawkish about the inflationary outlook of the economy and raises the interest rate it is positive, or bullish, for the EUR. Likewise, if the ECB has a dovish view of the European economy and keeps the ongoing interest rate, or cuts the interest rate, it is seen as negative, or bearish.

Pending Home Sales (USD) Medium Impact

The Pending Home Sales released by the National Association of Realtors is a leading indicator of housing market trends in the US. It provides a snapshot of residential housing contract activity of existing single-family homes. As the housing market is considered a sensitive factor to the US economy, it generates some volatility for the USD. A high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

ABC/Washington Post Consumer Confidence (USD) Low Impact

The ABC/Washington Post Consumer Confidence released by ABC News and the Washington Post provides a snapshot of the level of confidence that individuals have in economic activity reflecting respondents’ evaluations of their personal financial situation. A high level of consumer confidence stimulates economic expansion while a low level leads to economic downturn. A high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

Nationwide Consumer Confidence (GBP) Medium Impact

The Nationwide Consumer Confidence captures the level of confidence that individuals have in the UK’s current and future economy. A high level of consumer confidence stimulates economic expansion while a low level leads to economic downturn. A high reading is also positive for the GBP, while a low reading is negative.

Purchasing Manager Index Services (EUR) Medium Impact

The Services PMI released by Markit Economics interviews German executives on the status of sales and employment, and their outlook. Because the performance of the German service sector is extremely consistent over time, services do not impact final GDP figures as much as the more volatile figure of the manufacturing sector. Any reading above 50 signals expansion, while a reading under 50 indicates contraction.

BRC Shop Price Index (GBP) Low Impact

The British Retail Consortium (BRC) Shop Price Index measures price changes in popular retail outlets in the UK. Changes in the SPI are widely seen as an indicator of inflationary pressures. A high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the GBP, whereas a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

ADP Employment Change (USD) Medium Impact

The Employment Change released by Automatic Data Processing, Inc is a measure of the change in the number of employed people in the US. Generally speaking, a rise in this indicator has positive implications for consumer spending which stimulates economic growth. Therefore, a high reading is seen as positive, or bullish for the USD, while a low reading is seen as negative, or bearish.

Retail Sales (EUR) Medium Impact

The Retail Sales released by Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland is a measure of changes in sales in the German retail sector. It shows the performance of the retail sector in the short term. Percent changes reflect the rate of changes of such sales. Changes are widely seen as an indicator of consumer spending. Positive economic growth is seen as bullish for the EUR, while a low reading is seen as negative, or bearish, for the EUR.

ECB President’s Speech (EUR) High Impact

The European Central Bank’s President, Mario Dragi. He delivers a press conference outlining the ECB’s assessment of the current European economy and the value of the EUR. His comments may determine a short-term positive or negative trend. If he indicates a hawkish outlook, that is seen as positive (or bullish) for the EUR, while a dovish outlook is seen as negative (or bearish).

Non-Farm Productivity (USD) Medium Impact

The Non-Farm Productivity released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the US Department of Labor shows the output per hour of labor worked. Non-Farm Productivity indicates overall business health in the US, which has an influence on GDP. A high reading is positive (or bullish) for the USD, while a low reading is negative (or bearish).

Factory Orders (USD) Medium Impact

The Factory Orders released by the US Census Bureau is a measure of the total orders of durable and nondurable goods such as shipments (sales), inventories and orders at the manufacturing level, which can offer insight into inflation and growth in the manufacturing sector. A high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

Producer Price Index (GBP) Medium Impact

The Producer Price Index Input released by the Office for National Statistics is a monthly measurement of the rate of inflation experienced by UK manufacturers when buying goods and services. It provides a snapshot of changes in the average price of a fixed basket of goods and services purchased by UK manufacturers. A high reading is positive (or bullish) for the GBP, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

Average Hourly Earnings (USD) High Impact

The Average Hourly Earnings released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the US Department of Labor is a significant indicator of labor cost inflation and of the tightness of labor markets. The Federal Reserve Board pays close attention to this when setting interest rates. A high reading is also positive for the USD, while a low reading is negative

Non-farm Payrolls (USD) High Impact

The most important piece of data contained in the employment report (generally) and the establishment survey (specifically) is the Non-Farm Payrolls released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the US Department of Labor. The Non-Farm Payrolls measure the number of people on the payrolls of all non-agricultural businesses. Monthly changes in payrolls can be excessively volatile. A high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

Unemployment Rate (USD) High Impact

The Unemployment Rate released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the US Department of Labor indicates the number of unemployed workers divided by the total civilian labor force. If the rate is up, it indicates a lack of expansion within the US economy. Therefore, a decrease in the figure is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, while an increase is seen as negative (or bearish).

Consumer Credit (USD) Low Impact

The Consumer Credit released by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve is the amount of money that individuals borrowed. It shows whether consumers can afford large expenses, which can fuel economic growth. However, a high figure may also indicate that the economy is overheating, as consumers borrow in order to live beyond their means. A high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, whereas a low reading is seen as negative.

SNB Interest Rate Decision (CHF) High Impact

The Swiss National Bank conducts the country’s monetary policy as an independent central bank. It is obliged by the constitution and by statute to act in accordance with the interests of the country as a whole. Its primary goal is to ensure price stability, while taking due account of economic developments. In so doing, it creates an appropriate environment for economic growth.

Trade Balance (EUR) Medium Impact

The Trade Balance released by Eurostat is the balance between exports and imports of total goods and services. A positive value shows a trade surplus, while a negative value shows a trade deficit. It is an event that generates some volatility for the EUR. If a steady demand in exchange for exports is seen, that would turn into positive growth in the trade balance, and that should be positive for the EUR.

ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment (EUR) High Impact

The Economic Sentiment published by the Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung measures institutional investor sentiment, reflecting the difference between the share of investors that are optimistic and the share of analysts that are pessimistic. An optimistic view is considered positive (or bullish) for the EUR, whereas a pessimistic view is considered negative (or bearish).

NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (USD) Low Impact

A survey of manufacturers in New York conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. It indicates overall manufacturing levels in the United Sates. A positive result is bullish for the USD, while a negative result shows poor growth for the USD.

Bank of England Minutes (GBP) High Impact

The minutes of the BoE MPC meetings are published two weeks after the interest rate decision. The minutes give a full account of the policy discussion, including differences of opinion. They also record the votes of the individual members of the Committee. If the BoE is hawkish about the inflationary outlook for the economy, then the markets see a higher possibility of a rate increase, and that is positive for the GBP.

Import Price Index (USD) Medium Impact

The Import Price Index released by the US Department of Labor provides details of changes in the price of imported products into the US. The higher the cost of imported goods, the stronger the effect they will have on inflation, resulting in a higher probability of a rate rise. Therefore, a high reading should be taken as positive (or bullish) for the USD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

Industrial Production (USD) Medium Impact

The Industrial Production released by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve shows the volume of production of US industries such as factories and manufacturing. An upward trend is regarded as inflationary which may cause interest rates to rise. If high industrial production growth comes out, this may generate a positive (or bullish) sentiment for the USD.

Fed’s Chairman’s Speech (USD) High Impact

Janet Yellen is the Chairman of the FOMC. She delivers a press conference outlining the Fed’s assessment of the current US economy and the value of the USD. Her comments may determine a short-term positive or negative trend.

FOMC Minutes (USD) High Impact

FOMC stands for the Federal Open Market Committee that organizes 8 meetings in a year and reviews economic and financial conditions, determines the appropriate monetary policy stance and assesses the risks to its long-term goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth. FOMC Minutes are released by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve and are a clear indication of future US interest rate policy.

BoJ Interest Rate Decision (JPY) High Impact

The BoJ Interest Rate Decision is announced by the Bank of Japan. If the BoJ is hawkish about the inflationary outlook of the economy and raises the interest rates it is positive, or bullish, for the JPY. Likewise, if the BoJ has a dovish view of the Japanese economy and keeps the ongoing interest rate, or cuts the interest rate, it is negative, or bearish.

Continuing Jobless Claims (USD) Medium Impact

The Continuing Jobless Claims released by the US Department of Labor measures the number of individuals who are unemployed and are currently receiving unemployment benefit. It indicates the strength of the labor market. A rise in this indicator has negative implications for consumer spending, which discourages economic growth. Therefore, a high reading is seen as negative, or bearish for the USD, while a low reading is seen as positive, or bullish.

Initial Jobless Claims (USD) Medium Impact

The Initial Jobless Claims released by the US Department of Labor is a measure of the number of people filing first-time claims for state unemployment insurance. In other words, it provides a measure of the strength of the labor market. A larger-than-expected number indicates weakness in this market which influences the strength and direction of the US economy. Therefore, a decreasing number should be taken as positive or bullish for the USD.

Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (USD) Medium Impact

The Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Department of Labor measures average changes in prices in primary markets of the US by producers of commodities in all states of processing. Volatile products such as food and energy are excluded in order to provide an accurate calculation. A high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, whereas a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey (USD) Low Impact

The Philadelphia Fed Survey is a spread index of manufacturing conditions (movements of manufacturing) within the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. This survey acts as an indicator of manufacturing sector trends and is linked to the ISM (Institute for Supply Management) Manufacturing Index and the index of industrial production. It is also used as a forecast of the ISM Index. An above-expectations reading is seen as positive.

IFO – Business Climate (EUR) High Impact

This German business sentiment index published by the CESifo Group is closely monitored as an early indicator of current conditions and business expectations in the Euro Zone. The Institute surveys more than 7,000 companies on their assessment of the business situation and their short-term planning. Positive economic growth is seen as bullish for the EUR, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

IFO – Expectations (EUR) High Impact

The IFO Expectations released by the CESifo Group is closely monitored as an early indicator of current conditions and business expectations for the next six months, where companies rate the future outlook as better, same, or worse. An optimistic view by the 7,000 business leaders and senior managers that participate is considered positive, or bullish for the EUR, whereas a pessimistic view is considered negative, or bearish.

EIA Crude Oil Stocks change (USD) Medium Impact

EIA Crude Oil Stock is a measure of changes in crude oil stocks. It is released by the Energy Information Administration. This report indicates oil demand and price volatility. As oil prices have an impact on the global economy, some volatility for currencies, especially the CAD, is expected. It is important to recognize that Canada is the world’s fourteenth largest producer of oil so strong oil demand appreciates, or is bullish for the CAD.

Durable Goods Orders (USD) High Impact

The Durable Goods Orders, released by the US Census Bureau, measures the cost of orders received by manufacturers for durable goods, which means goods planned to last for three years or more, such as motor vehicles and appliances. As these durable products often involve large investments, they are sensitive to the US economic situation. The final figure shows the state of US production activity. A high reading is bullish for the USD.

Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation (USD) Medium Impact

The Durable Goods Orders, released by the US Census Bureau, measures the cost of orders received by manufacturers for durable goods, which means goods planned to last for three years or more, excluding the transport sector. As these durable products often involve large investments they are sensitive to the US economic situation. A high reading is bullish for the USD, while a low reading is seen as bearish.

Retail Trade (JPY) Medium Impact

The Retail Trade released by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry provides a snapshot of aggregate sales made through a business location (usually a store) in which the principal activity is the sale of merchandise and related services to the general public, for household or personal consumption. Consumer spending is a key indicator for the Japanese economy. A high reading is positive for the JPY, while a low reading is negative.

Wholesale Sales (CAD) Low Impact

The Wholesale Sales released by Statistics Canada shows the value of sales made by wholesalers in Canada. A growing number of wholesale sales indicate increases in retail trade and consumption, and this is seen as positive or bullish for the CAD, while a declining number indicates weakened retail sectors, consumption, and the economy in Canada, and this is seen as negative or bearish for the currency.

Wholesale Sales (USD) Low Impact

The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve announces an interest rate. This interest rate affects the whole range of interest rates set by commercial banks, building societies and other institutions for their own savers and borrowers. It also tends to affect the exchange rate. If the Fed is hawkish about the inflationary outlook of the economy and raises the interest rate, it is positive, or bullish, for the USD.

Bank of Japan Monthly Economic Survey (JPY) Medium Impact

The BoJ Monthly Economic Survey released by the Bank of Japan presents a study of economic movements in Japan. It reviews economic developments inside and outside of Japan and indicates a sign of new fiscal policy. Any changes in this report tend to affect JPY volatility. A high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the JPY, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

Jobless Rate (JPY) Medium Impact

The Jobless Rates released by the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare is a measure of the percentage of unemployed in Japan. A high percentage indicates weakness in the labor market which influences the strength and direction of the Japanese economy. Therefore, a low percentage should be taken as positive or bullish for the JPY.

Tokyo Consumer Price Index (JPY) Medium Impact

The Tokyo Consumer Price Index is released by the Statistics Bureau. It is a measure of price movements obtained by comparing the retail prices of a representative shopping basket of goods and services. The index provides a snapshot of inflation in Tokyo. CPI is the most effective way of measuring changes in purchasing trends. The purchase power of JPY is dragged down by inflation. A high reading is seen as positive.

Tokyo CPI ex Food, Energy (JPY) Medium Impact

The Tokyo Consumer Price Index released by the Statistics Bureau is a measure of price movements obtained by comparing the retail prices of a representative shopping basket of goods and services. Volatile products such as food and energy are excluded in order to provide an accurate calculation. CPI is the most effective way of measuring changes in purchasing trends. The purchase power of JPY is dragged down by inflation. A high reading is seen as positive for the JPY.

RBA Meeting’s Minutes (AUD) Medium Impact

The minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia meetings are published two weeks after the interest rate decision. The minutes give a full account of the policy discussion, including differences of opinion. They also record the votes of the individual members of the Committee. If the RBA is hawkish about the inflationary outlook for the economy, then the markets see a higher possibility of a rate increase, and that is positive for the AUD.

Westpac Leading Index (AUD) Medium Impact

The Westpac Leading Index released by the Melbourne Institute tracks nine gauges of economic activity, including share prices and telephone installations, to provide an indication of how the economy will perform. It tends to have an impact on AUD volatility. The more positive the reading, the better for the currency, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

Real Retail Sales (AUD) Medium Impact

The Real Retail Sales released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is a measure of changes in sales of the Australian retail sector. It shows the performance of the retail sector in the short term. Percent changes reflect the rate of changes of such sales. Changes are widely seen as an indicator of consumer spending. Positive economic growth is seen as bullish for the AUD, while a low reading is seen as negative, or bearish, for the AUD.

CBI Industrial Trends Survey – Orders (GBP) Medium Impact

The CBI Industrial Trends Survey is released by the Confederation of British Industry and gives expert qualitative opinion from senior manufacturing executives, on past and expected trends in output, exports, prices, costs, investment intentions, business confidence and capacity utilization. If these opinions show a hawkish outlook in the manufacturing sector, that is seen as positive, or bullish, for the GBP.

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